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Do You Really Want To Short The US Dollar?
Lets face it…everyone seems to hate the US Dollar…Seems every Forex trader wants to be short the US dollar. So many think the US dollar will crash ( maybe it will..who knows).. but what I do know as a commodity trader..when too many traders are on the other side of the boat… something happens. My short on the US dollar was recently taken out. What is interesting is that Nouriel Roubini is starting to speak about the US dollar carry trade. A carry trade is when traders/ speculators borrow in one currency and buy assets in more risky currencies… I remember the blood bath for the Japanese Yen in 1998 when the Yen carry trade blew up. Julian Robertson took a major hit as well as countless commodity and forex traders. The US dollar has replaced the Yen and is the now choice of potential danger. Risky asset prices have risen too much, too soon and too fast compared with macroeconomic fundamentals. Traders who are shorting the US dollar to buy on a highly leveraged basis higher-yielding assets ( Aussi…New Zealand… Brazil’s Real) and other global assets are not just borrowing at zero interest rates in dollar terms; they are borrowing at very negative interest rates – as low as negative 10 or 20 per cent annualised – as the fall in the US dollar leads to massive capital gains on short dollar positions. Trades like this do not last forever…
Is the mother of all carry trades and mother of all highly leveraged global asset bubbles fermenting?
No one knows the catalyst why/ if this can end… but the US dollar will not fall to zero and at some point it will stabilise; when that happens the cost of borrowing in dollars will suddenly become zero, rather than highly negative, and the riskiness of a reversal of dollar movements would induce many to cover their shorts. Second, the Fed cannot suppress volatility forever – its $1,800bn purchase plan will be over by next spring. Third, if US growth surprises on the upside in the third and fourth quarters, markets may start to expect a Fed tightening to come sooner, not later. Fourth, there could be a flight from risk prompted by fear of a double dip recession or geopolitical risks, such as a military confrontation between the US/Israel and Iran. As in 2008, when such a rise in risk aversion was associated with a sharp appreciation of the dollar, as investors sought the safety of US Treasuries, this renewed risk aversion would trigger a dollar rally at a time when huge short dollar positions will have to be closed. How many forex traders, commodity traders or simply speculators will be caught on the wrong side of this trade? Probably countless..
What is the point… trade with a plan…do not trade the news..realize anything can happen…because it will happen…
Futures trading involves risk. People can and do lose money
About the Author
My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I am a commodity trading advisor/co manager of a commodity pool who adheres to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets us apart from other Commodity trading advisors and commodity pools is that we are not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk you will have to tolerate to achieve your goals.
For the third time, highly respected forex trader and educator Mark McRae has re-opened his surefiretradingchallenge contest in which six winners will be chosen. These winners will have details of their trading formulas or systems added to Mark’s Traders Secret Library. Interviews with the six winners will also be available as well as their contact information.
The six winners include three from the “demo†category and three from the “live†category.
When signing up for the Surefire Challenge, you get membership to the Traders Secret Library, which is a content rich resource that includes a huge library of information for every trader. This includes written material, videos, forums and weekly live training webinars that are manned by MetaTrader 4 Expert Advisor programmer instructors. McRae also sends out free bonuses regularly.
When going to www.TheSurefireTradingChallenge.com and becoming a member, you are added to the membership roll at www.Traders-Secret-Library.net. Members are billed on a monthly basis.
The Traders Secret Library has the largest store of trading knowledge in the world. This material has been collected by seasoned forex traders over many years.
Members can consult other traders who are always available. There is also email support as well as live help support. Support can be had through Skype also.
In the Sure Fire Challenge contest, both amateur and professional forex traders compete under the same rules to see who can demonstrate that they have the most profitable trading formula in forex marketing. Verification of the reliability of each formula is established. Each winner must show that they traded at least ten times in a month.Trading must be verified on a daily basis and trade by trade. Even though this time Mark McRae has gathered a larger support team for processing, entry is limited because of the onslaught of contestants.
About the Author
what you just learned about surefiretradingchallenge is just the begining. To get the full story and all the details, check us out at TheSureFireTradingChallenge.com
Earlier this month, I let you in on what has turned out to be one the biggest Forex surprises of the year:
-The Forex Income Engine 2.0
This step-by-step home study course from 35+ year trader Bill Poulos is a multi-media powerhouse that reveals the quickest & most flexible way to achieve INDEPENDENCE in the Forex markets & shield yourself from risk…
-ESPECIALLY if you’re inexperienced & have little time.
In just about a week, the initial # of courses Bill set aside for his new students quickly sold out, and for good reason:
-those lucky individuals who claimed their copy before it expired figured out that NOW is one of the best times ever to trade Forex because of the huge volatility being created by the weakened global economies.
The profit potential right now is awesome.
YOUR SECOND CHANCE
Now that the initial wave of new student inquiries has settled down a bit, Bill has decided to take on a few more new students – but only through Friday, January 1st, 2010, at 11:59 pm Eastern (New York time).
(He’s doing this because of all the requests he received from people who missed out earlier in the month due to busy holiday plans.)
He’s not saying how many more he’ll take on, but I know this for a fact:
* He’s only letting in a small, limited number…
* The doors close on 1/1/10…
And, it would not surprise me if he pulled his ’second chance’ offer down early, especially if he gets more students than he can handle.
So, if you have ANY interest in getting in on what I think many traders will end up calling THE Forex event of 2009, go here to see if any copies are still available:
The forex market actually consists of many international markets around the world, including London, New York, Sydney, and Tokyo.
A specific country may have a holiday where traders in that country may take a break from trading; however, there are still traders in other countries who will continue trading, since their country doesn't celebrate that holiday.
Bottom line...although country-specific holidays may impact forex trading activity in terms of lower volume and higher volatility, they won't close down the forex market entirely. Trading still continues somewhere around the world.
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A zigzag-like movement of any currency pair at Forex consists of various combinations of such trends. A smaller trend makes an integral component of a bigger trend (either the trend wave, or, on the contrary, the retracement (correction) of a longer trend towards the opposite direction).
What any trader wants to know about Forex.
An individual is interested in knowing the correlation at least between the first (and shortest) trends at the beginning of the trade but not at the end of it. That is, one wants to learn the clear and simple rules, according which it would be possible to regularly open deals quietly and work within the intra-session trend with confidence. In addition, one is interested in understanding of the correlation at least between the intra-session and weekly trends.
Our aim is to gain but not to lose. One must keep cool. It is of no use to spend your nerves and health. Even if the currency has moved in "the wrong direction" by 15 points, it will return in a moment. Anyway, the only direction where the currency can go is that towards which you have opened the deal. The problem is just of being too late for entering the deal. As regards the given situation, the recommendations are the following:
a). If there are no signs of reversal in the currency pair movement, you must open the deal once more after the recoil (rollback).
b). If there are signs of the reversal (the preceding movement was the false breakout), at first you should open one deal towards the opposite direction. You get into the lock, where the quantity of damages, being fixed (stipulated), does not increase (in Masterforex Training Academy one can get a special course of training to the technique of making the lock). Further, you add deals towards the direction of the currency pair movement in the given session. First of all, you compensate your damages and then you gain profit. Under the condition of false breakouts of the levels of resistance/support, the margin of the currency pair movement is always larger than in the case of the level true breakout. That is, the trader can gain higher profits.
What a trader who follows (sticks to) these rules must see:
a). faultless levels of resistance and support with respect to each of ally currency pairs. (very often they are not those mentioned in sites by "respectable" analysts (but not traders));
b). clear criteria of the true and false breakout of these levels and the intra-session trend beginning;
c). the synchronous (or non synchronous) character of the ally currency pair group movement;
d). the time, velocity and type (manner) of the currency pair movement;
e). the next level (the intermediate goal), to which the currency pair is tending;
f). the reserve (margin) of the currency pair movement for the trading session;
g). the point of the intra-session trend end (surely, one must know the clear criteria of the movement finish; when such signs appear, one must fix (register) one's profits);
h). the point that confirms the beginning of the intra-session trend retracement; at this point one can also work with the correction against the trend at the super- short distances - in particular, you can make the lock narrower if you have got into this lock at the trading session beginning.
According to B. Williams, it is the fifth highest degree of the trader's qualification. Reaching this stage, the trader is not nervous but he feels satisfaction at his work
The reasons why the majority of traders never reach this fifth highest degree of trading
The reason consists in the classical Forex dogmas, according to which the technical analysis starts at least from daily charts.
In his "The Technical Analysis as a New Science", T. DeMark writes the following.
1. The daily information is the most accessible; for dozens of years analysts work mainly with daily charts.
2. Making use of daily charts, a trader must not continuously keep an eye on the market intra-day behavior. The trader runs less risks of being trapped because of price corrections. Not at all rare in the intra-day database, such corrections make the real pest of it.
3. There is the probability of making a deal at a price, closest to the value stipulated in the order. This probability increases if the trader uses the market signals, based on the intra-day information.
Here I would like to mention J. Swagger's rule #44 from his book "The Technical Analysis. Complete Course". The author claims that intra-day solutions are almost always wrong. He does not recommend to be engaged in the intra-day trade.
Below I submit other rules developed by this "classicist of the technical analysis".
7. Looking at the chart, you should follow your instinctive impression - especially if you do not mind to what kind of the market this chart relates.
Comment. What about the discipline and following the strict rules?
8. The fact that you have missed a substantial part of the new trend must not keep you away from trading within this trend - as long as you can detect the reasonable point of the damage arrest.
Comments. How must one understand this statement? Seemingly, the author admits uselessness (non operability) of his TRADING SYSTEM.
a) How to detect the reversal point not only within the trading day but in longer trends as well?
b) What does the notion "the reasonable point of the damage arrest" implies?
c) What are the criteria of the trend change?
d) About what kind of trend does one talk - the long-term, intermediate-term or the short-term ones? (We have dwelt on the difference between such trends in the previous chapter).
e) Even a trader-beginner can give a dozen of examples of a situation like this. The stop-loss ("the reasonable point of the damage arrest") was located at a peak of the short-term trend. Then the currency again rushed along the intermediate-term trend.
14. The newly-formed price models (or the market behavior) can tend towards the direction opposite to your position. In this case, you must immediately go out of any deal - even if stop points are not reached yet. You should ask yourself: "If I need a position at this market, what its direction must be?" If the answer does not coincide with the direction of the real position that you hold, you must close it. Actually, if values of the contrary indices are rather substantial, you reverse the position.
Comments. How to combine (reconcile) this thesis with the words "do not be engaged in the intra-day trading"?
21. Let us suppose that you cannot watch the market during a time interval (maybe you are traveling). Under these conditions, there are two outlets. First, you can liquidate all positions. Otherwise, you must make sure that active stop-orders are placed in all open positions.
No comments. If one can earn money not watching the market, what profits can gain those individuals who sit in front of their monitors during the trading?
31. Do not fix a small quick profit gained at the deals the direction of which coincides with that of the principal trends. In particular, if you are fully confident in the deal, you should not fix the profit in the first day.
Comment. How to detect the principal trend? Which trend is principal (even in the framework of the old classification (the long-term, intermediate-term and short-term trends))? And what is about the stop-loss? If the deal is open towards the "principal" trend direction, whereas the retracement (correction) starts developing in the opposite direction.
45. It is obligatory to check markets before the closing on Friday. Often the situation becomes clearer at the end of the week. The best price of entering the deal and going out of it is obtainable on Friday. At the stock exchange opening on the next Monday the price is worse. In particular, this rule is important when you hold a substantial position.
Comment. In fact, J. Swagger admits the existence of a weekly trend.
We now attract the reader's attention to B. Babcock's viewpoint ( see "How to trade trends"). This author states that for the successful trade your time scale for measuring the trend must be not shorter than 4 weeks. Therefore, you must enter the deal towards the price movement direction, which remains unaltered during 4 weeks and longer. There is a good example of the strategy based on trends. One must buy when the price of "close" is higher than 25 days before. One must sell when the price of "close" is lower than 25 days before. When you work in such a long trend, you really follow the market, not trying to predict it.
Comments. Thus, it is recommended to wait during 25 days, and then put the order on the 26th day. However, towards what direction it must be done? You look at the daily charts. For the convenience of calculating various currency pairs, one candle corresponds to one day. You can estimate the logic of the well-known author's reasoning by yourself.
Chart 12.1. USD/JPY pair movement during 4 hours. (For view picture see notes in end of article)
The descending trend came to an end exactly on the 26th day. After this the trend reversed and turned to the ascending one.
There is the analogous example. On January 3, 2006, the daily and weekly trends coincided at the American session. GBP passed more than 200 points during the session; EURO passed more than 160 points.
There arise the following questions.
3. Under the condition of the coincidence of the daily trend with the weekly one and the recoil from MF zone, is the movement regular? Naturally, it is! (The methods of determining the levels of the weekly trend beginning are explained in the educational course at Masterforex Trading Academy).
4. According to "classics" of Forex, a trader must do the following:
a). DeMark recommends to wait at least till the end of the day;
b). B. Babcock advises to start to count out 26 trading days in the current month;
c). J. Swagger recommends "not to be engaged in the intra-day trade". If the total trend is descending, one must stake on "sell" with GBP and EURO against USD and install the stop-loss at a "reasonable point of the damage arrest".
3. Now let us see what advices the analysts of "respectable" sites gave to traders that very day.
Forex Brokers Alpari made a review of the Asian session on January 3, 2006. Specialists of this center stated that the principal event of the day was to be the edition of the protocol of FOMC meeting dedicated to rates on December 13. Participants of the market were going carefully to study FOMC minute charts. The reason was the following. For the first time after a long period from the text of the final (concluding) instruction the Committee withdrew an important phrase about the stimulating character of the currency policy. In the past year the last trading day was finished with the positive sentiments towards USD. The latter still has chances to win back losses at the Asian session on Tuesday (December 13, 2005).
Comments. The analysts from Alpari, are they Guru? How can one know where and by how many points the currency will go in the forthcoming session? And what is more, the estimation is made issuing from the data that are to be expected on the basis of the fundamental analysis.
You can imagine how such analysts can confuse traders with the help of the fundamental analysis by suggesting who and where will "regain" the money in the next trading session.
Here about the same day it is written the following. Dealers note that, generally speaking, currency rates still have not left the ranges established recently. The pressure on USD rate is explicable by the following fact. Under the condition of low activity some investors start to close long positions in USD rate.
Expectation of an increase in the American stock indices gives a certain support to USD rate. The investors' attention is concentrated on the issue of protocol of the last meeting of Open Market Committee of USA Federal redundant system (FRS).
Comments. How should a trader open the position? Should it be done at the beginning of the session trend? Or, maybe, it is better to do this after the issue of "FOMC meeting protocol". That is, the position is to be opened after the careful study of this protocol by participants of the market.
As a trader to a trader, please, explain to me the following. Are such "analytical" reviews, edited on the eve of the trading, useful or harmful? If such reviews are detrimental to a trader, what for do Forex Brokers prepare them?
I'll give no further comments upon such nonsense and dogmas written by "classics" of Forex and their followers - "analysts" from various Forex Brokers.
Better let us dwell on trading systems developed by up-to-date working traders at Forex. Their descriptions are available in Internet.
As a trader, I'm convinced that Trading System, developed by a real trader, can be much more useful to a trader-beginner in his learning how to really gain profit. Any Trading System must be profoundly comprehended by a student. Its application must be brought to perfection. The trader must work according to this system almost automatically. Under these conditions, the work with such Trading System will be much more useful than reading of dozens and hundreds of books written by the "classics" of Forex (not-traders). A thoughtless observance of advices given by such "respectable" analysts can be disastrous. Such analysts, writing nonsense one after another, serve for interests of various Forex Brokers but not for those of traders.
I'll give no further comments upon such nonsense and dogmas written by "classics" of Forex and their followers - "analysts" from various Forex Brokers.
As a trader, I'm convinced that TRADING SYSTEM, developed by a real trader, can be much more useful to a trader-beginner in his learning how to really gain profit. Any TRADING SYSTEM must be profoundly comprehended by a student. Its application must be brought to perfection. The trader must work according to this system almost automatically. Under these conditions, the work with such TRADING SYSTEM will be much more useful than reading of dozens and hundreds of books written by the "classics" of Forex (not-traders). A thoughtless observance of advices given by such "respectable" analysts can be disastrous. Such analysts, writing nonsense one after another, serve for interests of various Forex Brokers but not for those of traders.
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